Oats, Peas, Beans and Barley Grow ... and So Does Wheat

As Randy and I walked into a field last week, I had an old childhood song tumbling around in my head. (By now, it should not come as a surprise to anyone that I have an on-going sound track in my brain):

Oats, peas, beans and barley grow.

Oats, peas, beans and barley grow,
Oats, peas, beans and barley grow,
You or I or anyone know how oats, peas, beans and barley grow.

First the farmer plants the seeds,
Stands up tall and takes his ease,
Stamps his feat and claps his hands,
And turns around to view his lands. ...
(For the whole thing and the actions, click here.)

Of course, there's a little more to farming than stamping your feet and clapping your hands. But our oats are growing.

Randy planted oats in an old alfalfa field the third week of March.  In April, the field is looking greener all the time, as the newly-planted oats take hold among the old alfalfa plants.

While the old childhood song doesn't talk about wheat, here in Central Kansas, it's growing, too. Our crop is thinner than it often is by this time of spring. And we don't have as much planted as we usually do. (More on prevented planting here.)

Though wet fields kept us from planting a third of what Randy had planned last fall, the downward trend in wheat acres is not exclusive to us.

This year, the Wheat State is nearing a 100-year low for acres planted to Kansas' most famous crop. Wheat acreage was down significantly in 2017 and 2018. Last year’s 7.7 million wheat acres hit the lowest point in 60 years.

Low prices and a wheat surplus moved farmers away from the Kansas staple. This year, those problems - combined with a delayed fall harvest and unfavorable weather - will push wheat acres to what could be the lowest point in a century.

Abandonment of wheat acres will be higher than the normal 10 percent because many stands, especially in North Central, Central and South Central Kansas, are poor because of wet and cold weather, experts say.

Unplanted acres that were meant for wheat won’t stay that way. Most farmers will plant the fields to corn, soybeans, grain sorghum or other fall harvested crops. We are among those who'll be planting more corn acres than we normally do because rain kept us out of some fields last fall. We got started with corn planting yesterday.

While recent surpluses and low prices have driven Kansas farmers away from wheat, a report from a former Kansas State University Extension wheat marketing specialist outlined that Western Kansas farmers have been losing money on wheat for some time. Bill Tierney, who now works as a market analyst for Ag Resource in Chicago, authored the report using data from Agri Benchmark. Participants in the Agri Benchmark network use standard procedures to best replicate the “standard” farm in their country or region. 

The data used by Tierney compares wheat growers in Western Kansas to those in Australia, Germany, Russia, Ukraine and more. (For the record, we are in Central Kansas.) The study looks at cost of production, yield and prices for the average farm in each country from 2013 to 2016.

The study data shows that while Western Kansas enjoyed one of the highest prices for wheat — at around $5.41 per bushel at the time of the study — it also had one of the highest average costs of production over the four-year period at $5.69 per bushel. 

But with lower average yields and higher costs of production, the report notes that from 2013 to 2016 the average Western Kansas wheat producer lost around 12 cents per acre — before low prices and unfavorable weather hit. (On Monday, the price at Sublette Co-op in western Kansas was $3.85. Yes, the price of wheat has gone down that much since the study. Sad but true. The cost of inputs would not have gone down that much.)

Vance Ehmke,  who sells certified seed in Western Kansas, said he doesn’t expect Kansas farmers to stop growing wheat. As there is less wheat, he expects prices to rise. Those prices could get very interesting in 2019, he said.

"A wise old man once told me that there is a reason why wheat goes to $6," Ehmke said in a news article earlier this year. "You ain't got any!"